* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 87 87 85 79 73 66 51 34 25 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 88 87 87 85 79 73 66 51 33 28 27 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 87 85 84 83 80 76 59 39 29 30 28 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 15 13 15 17 30 39 42 26 31 39 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 4 8 5 12 2 0 1 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 213 218 196 192 179 192 185 184 205 207 228 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.9 27.7 19.7 15.6 18.6 15.7 11.8 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 138 135 128 125 135 80 70 77 73 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.9 -49.1 -48.2 -48.6 -48.5 -47.0 -47.3 -46.8 -47.0 -46.2 -45.9 -46.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.8 0.6 1.9 2.7 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 64 60 50 39 43 45 49 57 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 43 43 45 45 46 49 49 39 28 21 21 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 92 101 108 111 144 147 139 129 132 173 149 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 103 83 103 99 127 48 103 87 59 48 46 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 19 12 14 13 -4 9 0 8 2 -8 13 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 881 962 983 901 829 773 500 279 44 -33 37 -7 519 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.8 32.0 34.7 37.9 41.1 43.7 46.3 48.8 51.1 53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.7 67.9 68.0 68.0 67.9 67.3 66.8 66.7 66.6 65.0 61.7 55.9 48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 14 13 16 19 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 23 22 14 7 5 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -13. -24. -34. -44. -50. -53. -52. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -1. 7. 15. 22. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 2. -12. -30. -42. -43. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -11. -17. -24. -39. -56. -65. -62. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 27.6 67.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.55 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/14/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 10( 29) 7( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 87 87 85 79 73 66 51 33 28 27 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 88 86 80 74 67 52 34 29 28 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 84 78 72 65 50 32 27 26 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 72 66 59 44 26 21 20 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 65 59 52 37 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 66 60 53 38 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 87 78 72 68 62 55 40 22 17 16 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS