* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 75 75 74 72 67 59 54 50 51 48 42 37 31 26 22 V (KT) LAND 75 74 75 75 74 72 67 59 54 50 51 48 42 37 31 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 75 74 74 74 74 71 67 62 56 53 55 53 48 42 36 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 12 13 13 17 15 20 18 9 10 15 23 16 25 30 41 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 0 4 0 -3 0 1 -3 0 0 0 6 7 0 7 5 SHEAR DIR 261 230 218 238 249 269 306 345 6 276 261 264 295 329 318 314 316 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.0 24.4 22.8 21.5 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 119 117 117 120 121 122 124 120 116 106 102 93 88 83 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 49 54 56 53 50 45 37 36 39 46 50 56 43 36 33 29 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 36 37 36 34 31 29 27 30 30 28 27 22 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 21 17 21 6 -13 -35 -43 -60 -59 -63 -34 1 -12 -39 -43 200 MB DIV -5 -3 8 35 21 -4 -44 -71 -27 1 25 10 0 -32 -41 -44 -65 700-850 TADV 4 5 3 8 3 -3 0 -2 2 10 2 11 10 -2 -4 -22 -28 LAND (KM) 1676 1636 1599 1590 1582 1599 1619 1620 1564 1476 1350 1256 1261 1402 1674 1488 1047 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.5 36.0 36.3 36.6 36.6 36.3 35.7 35.6 36.0 37.1 38.6 40.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.6 40.4 40.2 39.9 39.6 39.3 39.4 40.3 41.5 42.5 43.0 42.3 40.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 2 1 3 5 4 5 7 10 13 15 18 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -21. -28. -35. -41. -46. -51. -55. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 21. 24. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -10. -14. -11. -12. -15. -18. -25. -33. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -21. -25. -24. -27. -33. -38. -44. -49. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.9 40.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 75 75 74 72 67 59 54 50 51 48 42 37 31 26 22 18HR AGO 75 74 75 75 74 72 67 59 54 50 51 48 42 37 31 26 22 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 70 68 63 55 50 46 47 44 38 33 27 22 18 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 62 57 49 44 40 41 38 32 27 21 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT