* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 41 54 62 72 76 77 81 83 85 84 82 81 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 41 54 62 72 76 77 81 83 85 84 82 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 40 48 56 63 70 76 79 81 82 77 69 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 9 8 17 16 9 7 12 6 3 14 29 49 77 99 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 -3 -3 0 2 -1 2 0 -3 -3 -4 -9 -19 SHEAR DIR 66 61 64 81 87 73 94 97 37 36 54 225 218 233 230 229 232 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.2 23.9 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 158 158 158 157 158 157 164 159 150 140 141 133 130 104 88 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.5 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 73 74 76 72 67 63 64 66 63 52 53 62 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 13 15 20 20 23 23 24 27 27 30 31 33 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 63 62 73 72 72 79 78 62 23 4 -1 -25 -29 -35 -12 60 104 200 MB DIV 93 99 108 121 134 129 127 58 48 -10 1 -10 37 47 75 101 112 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -2 0 3 3 5 3 4 5 8 2 5 11 15 -32 -108 LAND (KM) 1725 1705 1720 1670 1640 1641 1728 1792 1753 1662 1596 1588 1650 1275 937 575 719 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.5 15.0 17.0 19.3 21.9 24.3 26.7 28.8 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.8 37.0 38.0 38.9 39.7 41.1 42.3 43.9 45.6 47.4 49.7 52.0 54.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 11 12 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 21 31 34 HEAT CONTENT 39 32 28 28 33 44 45 56 43 27 37 23 12 11 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 14. 22. 30. 36. 40. 43. 44. 42. 38. 35. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 13. 13. 14. 18. 19. 21. 21. 24. 26. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 29. 38. 47. 51. 52. 56. 58. 60. 59. 57. 56. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 35.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 21.2% 11.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 17.7% 4.9% 1.5% 1.1% 6.0% 10.5% 16.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 17.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 38.0% Consensus: 2.0% 18.7% 6.3% 2.8% 0.4% 2.8% 8.6% 18.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/14/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 35 41 54 62 72 76 77 81 83 85 84 82 81 79 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 38 51 59 69 73 74 78 80 82 81 79 78 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 45 53 63 67 68 72 74 76 75 73 72 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 34 42 52 56 57 61 63 65 64 62 61 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT