* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 48 45 40 36 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 46 48 45 40 36 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 37 38 38 36 33 30 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 10 12 13 11 16 14 19 28 41 52 61 67 65 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -7 -8 -8 -5 0 2 3 2 2 1 -2 -3 -8 -7 -15 SHEAR DIR 339 360 301 254 261 258 268 262 260 236 237 250 243 236 237 242 236 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 149 145 142 139 134 128 121 113 106 102 100 99 98 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 72 73 71 65 59 55 55 54 54 54 55 49 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 -1 6 10 17 20 17 14 9 6 -10 -23 -53 -56 -58 -64 200 MB DIV 76 56 31 46 42 45 67 54 25 -3 10 11 29 13 1 3 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 5 9 7 6 5 10 1 LAND (KM) 2558 2567 2546 2512 2487 2434 2337 2262 2183 2107 1994 1882 1784 1725 1673 1656 1695 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.7 12.3 13.3 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.9 17.8 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.2 131.6 131.9 132.2 132.9 133.5 134.0 134.6 135.2 136.1 137.0 137.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 7 6 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 15 12 11 11 13 13 10 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. 32. 29. 25. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 23. 20. 15. 11. 4. -2. -9. -16. -23. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 130.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.5% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 24.2% 8.0% 5.2% 2.4% 6.2% 19.6% 16.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 16.6% 9.0% 1.8% 0.9% 9.2% 12.5% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##