* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 83 82 79 73 66 56 35 24 20 25 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 83 82 79 73 66 56 40 30 26 31 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 82 81 80 77 70 49 35 30 29 31 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 17 15 17 34 41 38 30 28 35 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 10 9 12 7 2 -1 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 228 224 207 191 191 197 181 187 202 218 227 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.3 27.1 26.8 24.8 18.3 16.6 16.2 13.9 8.2 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 137 129 127 124 106 76 73 73 70 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.8 -48.1 -48.0 -48.4 -47.6 -47.5 -46.7 -46.5 -47.1 -46.7 -46.9 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.0 1.0 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 61 57 47 40 47 50 56 64 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 45 46 46 45 48 50 46 33 25 22 21 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 101 112 113 119 128 150 117 134 118 110 114 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 95 120 110 130 89 76 63 88 51 35 53 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 19 17 18 7 8 7 -2 3 15 11 -5 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 944 990 919 841 785 692 410 147 27 122 41 166 603 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.5 30.4 31.8 33.2 36.0 39.1 42.5 45.0 47.8 50.6 52.8 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.0 68.1 68.1 67.9 67.7 66.7 66.5 66.8 65.5 62.8 58.7 53.3 46.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 12 14 14 15 16 15 15 18 19 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 17 8 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -12. -23. -32. -41. -46. -46. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -9. -6. -1. 7. 16. 23. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. 1. 2. -3. -22. -35. -42. -45. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -19. -29. -50. -61. -65. -60. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 28.5 68.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.62 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 12.5% 8.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.2% 3.4% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/14/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 7( 24) 4( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 83 82 79 73 66 56 40 30 26 31 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 83 80 74 67 57 41 31 27 32 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 77 71 64 54 38 28 24 29 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 66 59 49 33 23 19 24 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 60 53 43 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 60 53 43 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 83 83 74 68 64 57 47 31 21 17 22 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS