* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 49 58 67 74 77 81 86 90 95 93 92 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 38 49 58 67 74 77 81 86 90 95 93 92 89 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 53 60 68 75 83 89 95 93 87 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 14 13 10 10 14 9 4 9 17 26 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 0 -3 -2 -2 1 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 73 102 116 104 112 97 94 63 44 46 352 283 255 244 231 253 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.6 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 159 159 155 155 156 157 157 155 152 154 146 133 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.6 -49.7 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 76 72 72 71 73 75 70 65 67 68 68 64 59 54 55 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 18 19 21 23 24 27 29 32 36 37 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 68 76 79 77 76 83 71 61 36 35 22 23 -2 19 32 60 55 200 MB DIV 88 96 94 110 113 122 129 112 47 34 3 0 20 17 43 44 16 700-850 TADV -4 -1 3 2 1 3 2 5 1 1 2 1 0 9 8 1 10 LAND (KM) 1777 1773 1700 1650 1624 1637 1664 1639 1620 1562 1500 1414 1348 1363 1370 1203 1126 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.6 16.1 17.6 19.4 21.4 23.5 25.3 27.0 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 37.9 39.0 40.0 40.9 42.5 44.0 45.5 46.8 48.1 49.8 52.4 55.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 12 13 16 17 15 10 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 32 37 42 52 50 58 58 28 28 25 30 21 12 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 35. 40. 42. 44. 43. 40. 38. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 18. 20. 23. 27. 27. 29. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 24. 33. 42. 49. 52. 56. 61. 65. 70. 68. 67. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 36.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 24.7% 12.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 5.4% 9.1% 18.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 12.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 3.4% 5.8% 9.1% Consensus: 1.8% 15.8% 5.8% 2.8% 0.2% 3.0% 9.9% 9.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/14/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 33 38 49 58 67 74 77 81 86 90 95 93 92 89 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 47 56 65 72 75 79 84 88 93 91 90 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 41 50 59 66 69 73 78 82 87 85 84 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 40 49 56 59 63 68 72 77 75 74 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT