* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 40 44 44 43 42 38 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 40 44 44 43 42 38 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 31 33 35 36 35 33 32 30 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 11 9 11 8 10 13 8 15 24 39 50 56 62 66 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 1 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 350 286 247 250 238 272 267 277 239 244 248 254 246 247 247 242 245 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.0 24.8 25.1 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 149 147 145 142 137 131 127 122 110 112 109 106 104 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 71 70 67 60 57 54 53 56 56 59 54 50 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 15 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 15 17 20 28 28 22 28 14 16 3 7 -27 -45 -30 -30 200 MB DIV 45 42 53 53 64 81 57 17 9 7 -16 10 0 -2 -11 0 -19 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 8 11 6 4 7 7 16 LAND (KM) 2572 2575 2535 2473 2422 2310 2230 2155 2081 1965 1819 1691 1611 1583 1580 1579 1611 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.1 132.5 132.9 133.2 134.0 134.5 135.1 135.7 136.7 137.9 138.9 139.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 6 7 7 5 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 12 12 15 13 10 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 33. 32. 29. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -7. -13. -18. -23. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 19. 19. 18. 17. 13. 7. 2. -5. -11. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 131.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.81 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.4% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 22.8% 23.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 34.8% 12.8% 8.9% 6.7% 15.2% 30.7% 17.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 21.4% 10.9% 3.0% 2.2% 12.8% 18.2% 5.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##