* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 75 73 70 64 57 42 24 18 22 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 75 73 70 64 57 42 27 24 28 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 74 72 71 67 54 36 29 26 25 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 18 21 35 41 40 38 33 35 40 48 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 12 11 3 12 9 -2 2 3 7 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 209 196 187 192 196 187 191 196 217 233 245 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.8 27.0 26.8 27.3 19.7 15.7 18.5 14.7 10.4 10.6 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 128 123 126 124 130 80 71 77 71 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.1 -48.0 -48.6 -48.3 -47.1 -47.3 -46.9 -46.6 -46.6 -46.7 -47.6 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.4 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 55 50 41 39 44 48 55 57 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 46 47 46 47 49 50 40 28 22 21 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 108 108 114 140 137 127 111 117 148 138 94 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 122 118 142 132 47 103 80 54 48 23 38 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 16 15 11 0 18 1 7 0 19 32 60 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 954 876 809 773 768 491 270 7 0 99 2 428 926 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 31.0 32.2 33.6 35.0 38.1 41.3 44.1 46.7 49.2 51.6 53.8 55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.1 68.0 67.6 67.3 66.6 66.7 66.3 64.0 60.3 55.5 49.4 42.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 16 15 14 17 18 20 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 9 4 5 4 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -14. -23. -32. -39. -42. -42. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -10. -7. -1. 8. 17. 24. 35. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. -11. -28. -39. -43. -49. -55. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -23. -38. -56. -62. -58. -55. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 29.8 68.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.70 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.70 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 8.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/14/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 4( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 75 73 70 64 57 42 27 24 28 31 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 75 72 66 59 44 29 26 30 33 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 71 65 58 43 28 25 29 32 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 67 61 54 39 24 21 25 28 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT