* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 67 65 61 57 50 45 43 44 43 38 30 25 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 67 65 61 57 50 45 43 44 43 38 30 25 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 67 66 64 59 53 48 47 48 47 42 37 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 14 15 14 17 15 13 7 11 22 18 12 11 12 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 0 -4 -3 6 3 0 -3 0 1 2 -1 11 10 5 8 SHEAR DIR 217 219 234 262 293 313 6 41 300 224 235 241 321 336 297 271 288 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.2 24.5 23.8 22.1 22.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 116 115 115 118 120 120 122 120 116 108 103 98 89 89 89 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -49.7 -50.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 50 43 35 31 31 34 39 47 47 44 41 40 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 35 35 35 34 33 29 26 25 27 29 28 24 20 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 28 16 13 -6 -26 -25 -38 -48 -52 -49 -23 -29 -25 -48 -68 200 MB DIV 3 30 23 -2 3 -41 -68 -64 -14 28 34 10 -13 -21 -2 -15 -2 700-850 TADV 6 6 2 0 -3 -2 -5 0 0 2 10 2 -1 9 11 8 15 LAND (KM) 1578 1581 1585 1597 1609 1628 1627 1598 1509 1372 1219 1229 1429 1672 1674 1323 936 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.5 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.4 35.8 35.4 35.6 36.7 38.7 40.2 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.1 39.8 39.4 39.2 39.0 39.1 40.0 41.2 42.6 43.3 42.8 40.7 37.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 2 1 3 5 5 5 8 10 12 14 14 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -25. -31. -37. -42. -47. -51. -51. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -15. -18. -17. -16. -18. -24. -30. -37. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -20. -25. -27. -26. -27. -32. -40. -45. -51. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 36.3 40.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.41 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 67 65 61 57 50 45 43 44 43 38 30 25 19 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 67 65 61 57 50 45 43 44 43 38 30 25 19 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 63 59 55 48 43 41 42 41 36 28 23 17 DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 54 50 43 38 36 37 36 31 23 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT