* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 38 47 58 67 73 76 78 83 89 92 86 85 80 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 38 47 58 67 73 76 78 83 89 92 86 85 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 53 60 68 73 78 84 87 82 76 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 11 17 14 17 15 14 20 17 7 13 30 46 67 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -7 -16 SHEAR DIR 80 94 85 88 82 81 75 71 13 17 27 23 258 250 243 242 259 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.5 27.9 27.1 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 155 155 150 148 154 153 152 151 145 147 137 126 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -50.2 -50.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 73 74 75 71 69 67 65 66 65 59 58 54 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 15 16 20 21 22 24 27 29 33 37 37 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 74 78 73 71 74 64 56 48 38 24 8 1 -16 6 27 37 -83 200 MB DIV 72 85 91 103 93 141 121 75 40 50 -4 1 14 42 70 76 27 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 2 4 3 6 7 0 -19 -43 LAND (KM) 1623 1510 1446 1408 1397 1457 1550 1702 1735 1710 1658 1629 1637 1400 1127 976 942 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.8 16.3 18.5 21.0 23.4 25.8 28.3 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 41.0 41.9 42.6 43.1 43.5 44.0 44.5 45.3 46.5 48.3 50.8 54.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 8 6 6 6 10 12 13 14 16 17 19 14 13 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 27 33 33 35 37 42 44 56 49 27 23 33 15 17 6 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 30. 36. 40. 42. 43. 42. 39. 36. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -10. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 10. 13. 17. 19. 23. 28. 26. 28. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 22. 33. 42. 48. 51. 53. 58. 64. 67. 61. 60. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 39.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 16.6% 10.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 15.2% 5.2% 1.4% 0.9% 4.7% 7.2% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 12.8% 33.6% Consensus: 1.6% 13.1% 5.5% 2.5% 0.3% 2.2% 11.3% 14.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/14/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 33 38 47 58 67 73 76 78 83 89 92 86 85 80 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 45 56 65 71 74 76 81 87 90 84 83 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 39 50 59 65 68 70 75 81 84 78 77 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 40 49 55 58 60 65 71 74 68 67 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT