* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 43 45 48 47 45 42 40 37 34 31 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 39 43 45 48 47 45 42 40 37 34 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 31 33 34 36 38 38 38 35 31 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 6 6 7 6 10 6 5 9 19 24 28 33 39 41 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 294 256 241 247 260 297 288 287 250 234 251 257 261 248 246 247 253 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 142 142 142 139 134 132 131 132 125 121 120 120 123 129 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 65 61 59 55 57 53 55 55 58 51 49 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 13 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 9 12 12 25 23 17 14 7 0 0 0 0 -14 2 21 200 MB DIV 29 44 56 64 78 69 37 18 -4 -14 2 6 -9 -1 -21 7 -36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 4 5 6 4 0 1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 2560 2467 2404 2342 2295 2206 2140 2074 1985 1834 1654 1480 1338 1236 1161 1100 1045 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.4 133.8 134.2 134.5 135.1 135.6 136.1 136.9 138.2 139.8 141.3 142.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 6 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 10 11 13 18 16 10 5 5 8 1 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 20. 23. 22. 20. 17. 15. 12. 9. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 132.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.84 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 17.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 33.6% 13.9% 9.3% 4.5% 13.4% 14.8% 12.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 18.7% 10.6% 3.1% 1.5% 11.5% 10.8% 4.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##