* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 68 65 60 53 47 43 46 46 43 36 27 22 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 68 65 60 53 47 43 46 46 43 36 27 22 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 70 69 68 67 64 58 51 48 50 51 48 43 36 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 14 16 20 19 10 10 10 14 12 10 7 8 38 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -3 5 2 2 0 -7 -4 5 -1 7 2 3 -4 16 SHEAR DIR 224 237 265 293 301 334 30 14 315 245 254 299 352 346 268 321 339 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.9 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.1 25.1 23.8 22.1 22.3 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 114 114 116 119 122 121 122 119 116 107 108 98 88 90 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -49.6 -50.3 -51.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 46 42 37 34 38 42 48 50 41 38 35 27 26 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 34 35 34 33 31 28 26 28 30 30 27 22 17 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 11 12 10 -21 -26 -31 -39 -44 -38 -28 -23 -23 -51 -84 -138 200 MB DIV 17 23 -8 4 -7 -76 -80 -36 8 32 9 2 -28 -20 -16 -35 -94 700-850 TADV 5 0 -1 -5 -1 0 0 1 3 12 -1 8 11 20 4 -10 -6 LAND (KM) 1579 1589 1598 1617 1635 1688 1666 1620 1518 1382 1245 1266 1486 1719 1689 1383 1057 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 36.8 36.9 36.8 36.6 35.9 35.3 35.0 35.5 36.7 38.4 39.7 40.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 39.2 38.9 38.8 38.7 38.8 40.1 41.5 42.6 43.1 42.8 40.7 36.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 4 6 5 5 7 9 12 15 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 6 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -24. -30. -36. -42. -46. -50. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -15. -13. -14. -19. -27. -35. -41. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -17. -23. -26. -24. -24. -27. -34. -43. -48. -52. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 36.7 39.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 511.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/14/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 68 65 60 53 47 43 46 46 43 36 27 22 18 DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 68 65 60 53 47 43 46 46 43 36 27 22 18 DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 63 58 51 45 41 44 44 41 34 25 20 16 DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 52 45 39 35 38 38 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT