* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 41 51 61 70 77 85 91 100 98 98 97 93 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 41 51 61 70 77 85 91 100 98 98 97 93 91 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 55 65 76 86 94 97 93 86 76 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 13 16 10 11 10 11 9 1 10 24 29 36 33 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 0 -1 0 3 -1 -2 -1 -1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 88 79 97 91 93 83 62 44 30 22 317 234 221 235 221 237 244 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.2 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 155 153 152 154 154 153 151 157 145 138 135 126 122 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.2 -49.8 -49.4 -49.7 -49.2 -50.0 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 71 75 75 77 73 68 66 64 65 64 60 57 58 53 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 14 16 15 17 19 20 22 26 29 34 35 38 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 68 69 66 55 55 35 35 19 22 5 10 19 54 65 89 200 MB DIV 96 95 91 80 98 103 102 80 58 43 16 -3 24 48 81 50 74 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 2 1 2 2 4 0 4 7 0 1 -5 LAND (KM) 1623 1550 1531 1533 1549 1610 1666 1637 1582 1520 1457 1437 1493 1345 1187 1166 1268 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.1 16.6 18.6 20.7 22.8 24.9 26.9 28.8 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.5 40.6 41.3 41.9 42.5 43.5 44.9 46.2 47.6 49.3 51.7 54.6 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 9 9 10 13 12 13 13 15 17 14 9 5 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 27 33 39 45 50 46 57 58 27 24 31 21 15 14 10 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 34. 38. 40. 41. 39. 36. 34. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 17. 21. 28. 27. 30. 33. 31. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 16. 26. 36. 45. 52. 60. 66. 75. 73. 73. 72. 68. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 39.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.85 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 26.0% 12.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 34.6% 12.9% 4.5% 4.6% 19.9% 20.2% 42.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 16.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 4.1% 12.1% 71.6% Consensus: 3.0% 25.8% 9.0% 3.9% 1.6% 8.0% 16.5% 38.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 09/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/14/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 32 37 41 51 61 70 77 85 91 100 98 98 97 93 91 18HR AGO 25 24 29 34 38 48 58 67 74 82 88 97 95 95 94 90 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 30 40 50 59 66 74 80 89 87 87 86 82 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 39 48 55 63 69 78 76 76 75 71 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT