* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 42 42 42 38 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 42 42 42 38 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 32 29 25 20 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 9 7 8 12 6 7 16 29 37 44 48 52 54 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 -2 0 1 0 0 1 1 5 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 268 251 259 270 297 284 303 272 247 233 257 256 253 248 248 241 243 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 143 142 142 140 135 132 130 131 126 123 119 119 119 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 65 64 59 56 53 55 57 58 60 57 52 45 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 17 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 10 8 16 30 19 25 10 14 8 18 3 -20 -21 15 27 200 MB DIV 51 58 74 66 68 45 25 13 0 -18 -6 -10 -7 -7 -5 -12 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 1 2 1 0 3 6 9 5 4 2 -2 -1 3 LAND (KM) 2502 2420 2358 2301 2254 2170 2094 2005 1879 1718 1559 1433 1360 1327 1321 1316 1291 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.0 133.6 134.0 134.4 134.7 135.3 135.9 136.7 137.8 139.2 140.5 141.5 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 5 2 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 13 15 15 11 6 4 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32. 29. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 17. 17. 13. 9. 3. -2. -7. -12. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 133.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.7% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 19.6% 16.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 33.3% 11.9% 8.0% 4.5% 13.1% 14.2% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 18.4% 9.6% 2.7% 1.5% 10.9% 10.2% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##