* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 71 67 65 53 35 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 71 67 65 53 36 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 69 66 52 33 30 26 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 23 33 40 40 39 34 31 34 41 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 9 1 10 11 10 1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 188 184 186 189 187 187 193 210 230 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.7 27.2 26.8 19.7 16.4 17.6 15.6 8.9 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 123 129 124 80 72 75 74 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.2 -48.4 -48.1 -47.8 -47.7 -47.6 -47.4 -46.8 -47.0 -47.2 -48.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 55 51 45 41 48 50 56 61 60 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 47 48 49 51 49 38 27 22 20 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 106 124 115 122 116 116 118 97 81 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 138 139 101 73 48 67 94 57 52 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 12 8 14 7 13 0 -6 6 1 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 815 786 776 618 480 226 -31 60 25 270 808 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.6 35.1 36.8 38.4 41.6 44.4 47.0 49.6 52.2 54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.0 67.5 67.0 66.6 66.3 66.2 65.6 63.2 58.4 51.6 43.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 17 16 15 15 18 23 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -15. -24. -32. -36. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -9. -4. 2. 12. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 1. -12. -28. -38. -43. -50. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -10. -22. -40. -58. -67. -64. -59. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.1 68.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/15/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 2( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 71 67 65 53 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 68 66 54 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 67 65 53 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 51 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT