* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 60 68 76 84 92 97 100 99 95 93 91 92 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 60 68 76 84 92 97 100 99 95 93 91 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 52 61 72 85 96 104 106 101 92 82 77 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 13 13 11 14 10 8 7 2 9 20 28 24 28 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 1 -5 -1 0 -1 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 68 83 80 83 77 61 59 18 11 312 246 235 224 226 226 257 229 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.3 28.8 28.4 27.5 27.3 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 152 151 149 154 156 153 156 143 151 143 128 124 133 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -50.7 -50.1 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.1 -48.5 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 7 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 69 73 74 76 76 72 69 68 68 68 66 56 63 59 51 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 15 15 17 18 20 22 25 31 34 37 39 40 41 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 71 68 69 61 57 55 46 24 34 29 29 7 30 64 102 116 118 200 MB DIV 81 102 86 77 135 122 102 79 54 28 -3 20 61 69 62 51 78 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 0 2 5 5 3 3 2 -3 1 6 LAND (KM) 1527 1477 1464 1486 1506 1567 1613 1585 1482 1403 1369 1373 1442 1318 1271 1323 1384 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.2 16.8 19.0 21.2 23.4 25.6 27.7 29.5 31.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.8 41.7 42.4 42.8 43.3 44.4 45.6 47.1 48.9 51.2 54.0 57.3 59.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 8 12 13 13 15 16 16 16 11 5 3 8 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 40 43 45 44 56 61 25 31 17 29 20 8 7 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 36. 37. 35. 31. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 22. 27. 32. 33. 32. 33. 33. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 30. 38. 46. 54. 62. 67. 70. 69. 65. 63. 61. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 40.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.58 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 37.8% 20.4% 9.8% 7.7% 16.1% 22.6% 47.9% Logistic: 2.9% 18.1% 5.8% 1.2% 0.7% 5.2% 9.4% 12.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 25.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.3% 7.1% 35.1% 12.7% Consensus: 2.9% 27.0% 9.9% 3.7% 2.9% 9.4% 22.4% 24.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 09/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/15/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 49 60 68 76 84 92 97 100 99 95 93 91 92 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 44 55 63 71 79 87 92 95 94 90 88 86 87 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 47 55 63 71 79 84 87 86 82 80 78 79 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 36 44 52 60 68 73 76 75 71 69 67 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT