* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 36 39 39 38 38 36 35 34 34 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 31 36 39 39 38 38 36 35 34 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 25 26 28 28 28 26 23 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 9 11 15 8 7 7 16 21 27 28 38 38 36 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 2 -1 1 0 1 2 0 3 4 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 243 243 257 269 259 285 303 288 239 249 266 268 272 263 270 290 297 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 135 130 131 133 140 140 137 130 126 131 133 134 135 140 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 57 55 54 51 51 49 51 53 55 52 52 53 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 15 17 17 16 20 15 8 1 -7 1 -6 -8 9 10 15 200 MB DIV 66 78 95 81 78 29 39 10 -10 0 -12 -22 -22 -42 -30 -42 -14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 3 0 -1 -1 4 4 4 4 7 5 -4 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 2350 2258 2172 2114 2056 1961 1867 1763 1605 1430 1261 1103 966 877 837 841 859 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.4 135.1 135.6 136.1 137.1 138.1 139.3 140.9 142.6 144.2 145.7 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 11 8 5 5 7 11 8 5 2 1 4 6 6 5 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 11. 14. 15. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 133.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.6 49.8 to 0.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.2% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 1.5% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.7% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##