* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 69 67 60 47 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 73 69 67 60 47 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 72 68 62 43 29 27 25 29 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 33 42 41 37 40 30 33 44 50 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 3 10 9 8 0 5 5 8 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 187 189 190 200 187 194 206 231 233 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 27.3 26.3 22.8 17.6 18.3 15.4 12.0 11.9 10.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 130 119 93 74 76 72 71 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -48.3 -48.1 -48.0 -48.0 -47.7 -47.2 -46.5 -46.0 -46.1 -46.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 43 41 42 50 49 55 55 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 48 48 52 50 46 32 25 22 20 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 131 117 127 130 112 122 135 126 88 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 141 105 75 57 46 77 75 63 50 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 6 11 5 7 4 3 16 18 -82 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 769 758 607 452 334 76 -21 71 3 551 1206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 35.2 36.8 38.5 40.2 43.1 45.8 48.5 50.9 53.4 55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.7 67.3 66.8 66.6 66.5 66.5 65.0 61.6 55.9 47.5 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 16 14 16 19 26 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 13 CX,CY: 2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -17. -26. -33. -37. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -9. -4. 3. 14. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. -2. -19. -30. -37. -43. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -8. -15. -28. -50. -62. -69. -66. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 33.6 67.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 53.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/15/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 69 67 60 47 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 70 68 61 48 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 62 49 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 58 45 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT