* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972023 09/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 67 76 88 93 99 107 112 112 107 107 107 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 67 76 88 93 99 107 112 112 107 107 107 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 51 61 74 89 101 107 113 116 113 106 101 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 12 11 13 7 12 7 5 0 4 8 10 17 19 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -6 -3 -2 -3 2 2 5 0 -3 0 2 11 9 SHEAR DIR 80 80 86 91 81 88 81 65 91 159 322 86 233 237 265 231 232 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 150 149 154 152 161 158 162 159 161 153 147 143 136 126 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -49.9 -49.4 -48.8 -48.8 -48.6 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 70 72 75 74 72 69 66 64 62 62 63 60 55 56 50 47 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 18 20 22 27 29 32 35 39 40 39 41 44 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 70 68 63 68 47 44 52 64 54 48 45 71 96 134 142 200 MB DIV 76 69 91 107 107 103 59 54 38 30 -22 30 26 66 19 17 -28 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 1 3 3 5 6 5 2 -1 2 2 3 8 1 LAND (KM) 1401 1397 1399 1421 1447 1413 1324 1217 1105 1014 964 980 1026 1108 1226 1368 1173 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 44 45 38 36 43 49 49 52 61 46 31 33 24 14 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 35. 38. 39. 39. 36. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 28. 28. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 37. 46. 58. 63. 69. 77. 82. 82. 77. 77. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 42.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972023 INVEST 09/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.78 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 31.9% 16.1% 9.4% 7.2% 12.4% 19.9% 35.7% Logistic: 7.0% 27.2% 12.4% 4.9% 2.9% 13.8% 14.7% 12.0% Bayesian: 3.8% 32.3% 10.3% 1.2% 1.0% 21.0% 54.7% 45.3% Consensus: 4.9% 30.5% 12.9% 5.2% 3.7% 15.8% 29.8% 31.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972023 INVEST 09/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972023 INVEST 09/15/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 48 58 67 76 88 93 99 107 112 112 107 107 107 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 53 62 71 83 88 94 102 107 107 102 102 102 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 46 55 64 76 81 87 95 100 100 95 95 95 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 44 53 65 70 76 84 89 89 84 84 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT