* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LEE AL132023 09/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 59 53 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 59 53 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 68 64 58 50 33 29 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 42 43 38 37 38 36 40 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 8 9 9 -1 0 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 183 191 205 184 198 196 218 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.4 26.2 22.2 19.0 16.3 16.5 14.3 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 132 118 90 78 72 74 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -48.0 -48.1 -48.3 -47.7 -47.6 -47.0 -46.4 -45.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.0 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 44 42 43 46 50 54 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 48 51 51 49 36 27 24 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 120 126 130 115 116 122 112 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 73 55 67 73 84 76 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 2 7 17 10 3 0 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 776 606 457 342 197 7 116 46 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.9 38.6 40.3 41.9 44.8 47.8 50.8 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.0 66.7 66.4 66.3 66.3 65.5 62.9 58.0 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 16 16 16 19 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 17 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -17. -23. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -6. -1. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. -11. -24. -33. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -17. -36. -53. -62. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.1 67.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 55.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132023 LEE 09/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132023 LEE 09/15/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 66 63 59 53 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 62 56 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 62 56 42 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 54 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT