* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 49 43 37 35 34 36 37 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 49 43 37 35 34 36 37 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 50 49 44 39 35 35 37 37 32 28 26 24 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 21 25 23 22 22 12 5 21 23 10 9 12 15 48 45 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 4 0 1 -1 0 -3 -4 3 2 2 -4 4 -3 18 7 SHEAR DIR 295 279 300 321 4 44 10 315 271 268 288 341 299 317 328 297 281 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.9 26.5 25.4 25.1 24.5 23.9 23.1 22.8 22.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 118 122 119 116 121 118 109 107 102 98 94 93 92 92 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -52.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.0 -0.3 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 40 39 37 34 33 35 37 44 44 43 39 34 36 50 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 32 30 27 23 20 20 22 23 18 14 12 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 -10 -17 -21 -22 -38 -46 -90 -85 -65 -59 -34 -36 -48 -44 -15 200 MB DIV -17 -27 -36 -45 -74 -83 -38 -13 9 27 4 -53 -15 -36 -20 -28 40 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -4 -8 -4 1 -2 7 12 8 13 4 -8 -13 -14 -15 LAND (KM) 1682 1713 1744 1743 1743 1714 1624 1485 1360 1333 1436 1634 1872 1677 1347 966 540 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 36.1 35.8 35.5 35.2 34.6 34.8 35.6 37.1 38.6 39.8 40.1 39.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.2 38.1 38.0 38.4 38.9 40.4 41.8 43.1 42.8 41.0 38.0 34.9 32.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 5 6 6 6 6 8 11 13 11 12 14 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 2 3 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -16. -19. -18. -18. -26. -33. -36. -42. -44. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -12. -18. -20. -21. -19. -18. -25. -32. -36. -40. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 36.4 38.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -39.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/15/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 51 49 43 37 35 34 36 37 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 50 44 38 36 35 37 38 31 24 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 48 42 36 34 33 35 36 29 22 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 37 31 29 28 30 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT