* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152023 09/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 57 66 75 84 93 96 102 101 99 95 93 95 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 57 66 75 84 93 96 102 101 99 95 93 95 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 51 60 73 86 97 104 108 108 101 93 87 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 10 12 12 9 7 13 5 3 9 8 6 16 22 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 5 -4 -2 3 1 3 5 5 SHEAR DIR 70 75 87 75 75 86 72 75 89 58 72 157 256 240 242 237 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.8 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.2 26.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 148 151 149 159 162 164 164 151 150 147 138 127 122 135 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.6 -49.4 -49.3 -48.9 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 5 2 700-500 MB RH 70 74 73 71 68 66 64 65 62 65 63 63 59 57 51 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 17 18 20 23 26 31 32 36 36 37 37 38 44 850 MB ENV VOR 77 76 72 68 68 57 40 51 46 55 38 41 33 63 88 103 103 200 MB DIV 68 95 136 123 120 93 46 42 16 12 -11 46 45 83 41 31 62 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 3 4 4 5 6 4 0 3 2 9 12 9 15 LAND (KM) 1386 1419 1449 1470 1481 1387 1317 1189 1125 1088 1077 1120 1230 1361 1263 1073 955 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 38 43 42 35 32 37 67 41 59 47 41 36 22 16 7 1 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. 35. 32. 29. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 19. 21. 26. 24. 25. 23. 24. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 36. 45. 54. 63. 66. 72. 71. 69. 65. 63. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 43.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.77 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.64 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 35.3% 18.1% 9.4% 7.3% 13.1% 22.9% 45.1% Logistic: 4.5% 21.7% 9.0% 2.6% 1.1% 5.5% 5.7% 8.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 10.9% 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 2.9% 35.4% 29.4% Consensus: 3.5% 22.6% 10.0% 4.1% 2.9% 7.2% 21.4% 27.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/15/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 48 57 66 75 84 93 96 102 101 99 95 93 95 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 52 61 70 79 88 91 97 96 94 90 88 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 45 54 63 72 81 84 90 89 87 83 81 83 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 43 52 61 70 73 79 78 76 72 70 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT