* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 09/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 22 21 20 21 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 22 21 20 21 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 19 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 13 17 13 8 13 17 21 26 26 28 24 23 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 3 0 1 1 0 3 0 2 2 0 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 271 284 266 258 275 279 268 219 233 246 258 258 263 262 251 245 245 SST (C) 27.4 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 129 126 126 126 131 140 138 136 134 133 133 130 134 137 142 144 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 51 50 48 49 49 54 52 54 51 52 51 51 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 11 16 9 14 13 13 18 4 3 -7 -4 0 2 -5 5 200 MB DIV 51 49 41 17 9 14 26 4 -12 -36 -31 -26 -32 -9 -22 -5 -23 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -1 0 -1 0 2 2 3 3 5 3 0 -4 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 2145 2056 2001 1964 1916 1805 1690 1547 1416 1281 1134 999 900 825 785 795 870 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.2 14.1 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.3 136.0 136.5 136.9 137.4 138.6 139.9 141.4 142.9 144.4 146.1 147.7 149.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 2 2 2 6 11 7 5 4 8 11 3 3 5 8 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -18. -18. -17. -15. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -6. -1. 4. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 135.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 09/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 09/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##