* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152023 09/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 46 54 63 73 80 81 81 83 83 83 83 83 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 46 54 63 73 80 81 81 83 83 83 83 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 55 66 76 82 84 86 85 84 83 81 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 10 11 9 9 6 11 10 10 14 19 12 7 13 27 42 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -4 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 0 6 7 7 9 1 SHEAR DIR 79 79 72 62 70 76 56 77 82 92 126 168 187 226 230 248 251 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.3 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 149 151 152 154 161 160 164 161 150 149 141 138 128 131 132 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -49.5 -50.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 71 71 67 69 65 66 65 61 58 56 46 36 23 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 18 20 23 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 36 39 850 MB ENV VOR 77 68 58 60 58 33 41 37 47 40 25 18 45 59 92 89 13 200 MB DIV 98 128 113 112 104 68 64 46 34 -23 46 36 56 29 30 -5 -5 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 2 4 3 6 5 5 0 1 1 2 8 1 -9 -41 LAND (KM) 1452 1485 1521 1553 1506 1402 1312 1208 1154 1103 1121 1185 1338 1381 1205 1075 907 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.3 19.9 21.5 22.9 24.3 25.5 26.9 28.3 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.7 44.2 44.7 45.5 46.4 48.3 49.9 51.6 53.2 55.2 57.3 59.0 59.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 40 37 39 47 53 44 45 44 39 25 17 17 7 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 32. 29. 26. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 18. 21. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 24. 33. 43. 50. 51. 51. 53. 53. 53. 53. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 43.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 35.2% 17.7% 9.5% 7.6% 15.5% 22.0% 35.5% Logistic: 4.0% 18.2% 7.5% 2.5% 1.0% 4.9% 4.6% 5.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.7% 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.4% 7.7% 16.9% Consensus: 3.1% 20.0% 9.2% 4.0% 2.9% 7.6% 11.4% 19.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/15/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 41 46 54 63 73 80 81 81 83 83 83 83 83 84 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 42 50 59 69 76 77 77 79 79 79 79 79 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 44 53 63 70 71 71 73 73 73 73 73 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 42 52 59 60 60 62 62 62 62 62 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT