* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122023 09/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 17 17 17 17 26 31 32 35 33 28 24 20 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 2 1 2 0 4 2 2 2 3 1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 287 263 264 273 275 266 256 235 242 256 249 252 265 267 271 259 257 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.9 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 124 123 125 131 133 128 126 124 125 129 131 135 141 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 51 49 46 47 50 51 52 51 49 47 46 47 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 19 13 12 16 10 21 6 14 6 6 -3 3 11 16 19 200 MB DIV 38 25 10 3 7 6 5 -10 -37 -44 -32 -37 -48 -19 -19 -10 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 2 -1 4 2 5 2 4 1 0 -4 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2074 2010 1948 1899 1841 1715 1577 1457 1338 1207 1087 990 913 871 834 822 860 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.0 15.0 14.8 14.7 14.5 14.2 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.3 136.9 137.4 138.0 139.3 140.7 141.9 143.2 144.6 146.0 147.3 148.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 1 2 8 6 2 1 0 1 6 3 4 7 8 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -31. -31. -28. -25. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -19. -24. -29. -32. -31. -25. -17. -10. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 135.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122023 TWELVE 09/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.2 49.8 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122023 TWELVE 09/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##