* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 49 46 40 37 32 31 34 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 49 46 40 37 32 31 34 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 48 42 38 36 37 37 33 28 25 22 20 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 17 21 26 22 13 16 27 28 19 19 23 23 24 14 13 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 -3 -1 0 -9 -4 2 7 10 -5 1 0 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 310 330 8 39 40 357 304 298 278 316 345 348 344 350 18 121 184 SST (C) 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.9 26.4 25.3 25.4 24.7 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 119 122 124 120 116 121 117 108 109 103 100 96 92 91 91 93 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -50.8 -52.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.1 1.0 0.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 38 37 36 34 33 34 36 44 47 43 42 38 36 37 37 29 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 28 27 23 19 17 18 21 17 14 10 7 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -27 -34 -25 -46 -53 -89 -82 -70 -42 -25 -33 -52 -86 -120 -83 200 MB DIV -34 -67 -72 -82 -88 -42 -26 2 -1 0 -54 -53 -98 -150 -54 -4 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -2 -2 2 -3 3 14 21 18 14 -1 11 12 13 -21 LAND (KM) 1765 1757 1751 1743 1737 1624 1494 1404 1362 1491 1739 1923 1827 1717 1601 1438 1249 LAT (DEG N) 35.7 35.4 35.1 34.8 34.4 34.8 35.6 36.9 38.7 39.3 38.9 38.7 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.8 38.3 38.9 39.6 40.3 41.8 42.9 42.3 40.4 37.7 34.5 32.1 30.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 6 6 9 11 11 11 7 6 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 4 3 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -33. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -21. -22. -20. -27. -33. -39. -43. -48. -51. -49. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -18. -23. -24. -21. -27. -32. -38. -42. -43. -42. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.7 37.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -68.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 52 49 46 40 37 32 31 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 52 49 46 40 37 32 31 34 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 45 39 36 31 30 33 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 36 33 28 27 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT