* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152023 09/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 48 58 66 75 81 84 86 86 88 84 84 80 86 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 48 58 66 75 81 84 86 86 88 84 84 80 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 47 57 68 77 85 90 90 86 81 76 69 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 8 11 7 3 13 10 6 14 28 57 65 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 -6 0 1 4 12 11 7 -1 SHEAR DIR 90 75 70 78 71 46 78 82 59 104 169 211 211 217 235 238 242 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.7 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.6 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 153 151 157 161 163 161 147 150 140 136 131 134 116 120 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.3 -50.0 -49.9 -49.3 -49.1 -49.3 -50.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 68 66 65 63 63 61 58 55 46 35 18 14 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 15 18 20 21 24 26 28 30 31 33 33 36 37 46 850 MB ENV VOR 73 62 58 57 52 31 44 33 38 19 6 15 49 101 100 -8 -68 200 MB DIV 121 108 93 95 78 44 51 27 17 23 36 63 58 12 0 -20 -36 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 5 6 6 4 6 3 -1 4 0 3 2 -33 -83 -72 LAND (KM) 1487 1516 1548 1492 1449 1373 1263 1211 1159 1188 1278 1450 1295 1081 924 804 1005 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.4 21.2 22.7 24.3 25.7 27.2 28.8 30.8 33.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.3 45.0 45.7 46.6 47.5 49.2 50.9 52.5 54.6 56.5 57.9 58.8 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 11 12 10 10 11 12 14 18 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 37 39 40 62 38 43 37 32 27 16 14 8 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. 28. 24. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 17. 20. 18. 22. 21. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 28. 36. 45. 51. 54. 56. 56. 58. 54. 54. 50. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 44.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.59 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 33.7% 16.9% 9.5% 7.7% 15.1% 19.4% 34.1% Logistic: 5.1% 18.0% 9.3% 3.7% 1.3% 5.7% 4.9% 5.0% Bayesian: 2.0% 4.0% 3.6% 0.5% 0.4% 5.3% 8.9% 10.5% Consensus: 3.7% 18.6% 9.9% 4.6% 3.1% 8.7% 11.1% 16.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 10.0% 37.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 42 48 58 66 75 81 84 86 86 88 84 84 80 86 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 44 54 62 71 77 80 82 82 84 80 80 76 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 46 54 63 69 72 74 74 76 72 72 68 74 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 36 44 53 59 62 64 64 66 62 62 58 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT