* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 48 45 38 34 28 32 31 26 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 48 45 38 34 28 32 31 26 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 46 40 37 36 37 35 31 28 26 25 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 27 22 18 15 17 29 19 5 8 12 25 11 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 -3 0 1 -5 -6 1 0 5 4 -1 -9 0 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 5 37 45 33 350 317 283 278 322 320 339 12 30 105 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 27.0 27.2 26.9 26.2 26.7 26.8 26.1 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.0 24.1 23.6 23.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 123 125 122 114 119 121 115 109 110 108 103 96 93 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 1.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 35 33 32 32 33 38 46 43 37 36 31 32 31 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 28 26 24 20 17 15 20 19 15 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -29 -32 -28 -44 -61 -90 -114 -79 -50 -25 -37 -57 -74 -105 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -67 -71 -85 -87 -64 -35 -19 2 4 0 -44 -37 -132 -67 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -4 -2 0 0 0 10 11 15 17 3 11 12 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1787 1788 1791 1745 1701 1594 1471 1364 1468 1663 1870 1942 1810 1716 1639 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 34.9 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.8 35.8 37.8 38.8 38.7 38.0 37.8 38.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.0 38.6 39.3 40.2 41.2 42.4 43.0 41.6 38.6 35.8 33.5 31.7 30.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 7 5 8 11 12 10 8 6 5 4 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 3 5 3 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. -33. -32. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -17. -22. -18. -22. -29. -35. -39. -42. -46. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -21. -27. -23. -24. -29. -34. -37. -39. -40. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.3 38.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -74.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 533.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 52 48 45 38 34 28 32 31 26 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 52 48 45 38 34 28 32 31 26 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 44 37 33 27 31 30 25 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 35 31 25 29 28 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT