* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 33 31 28 24 26 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 33 31 28 24 26 25 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 38 36 33 30 28 28 28 27 25 23 21 19 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 21 17 14 14 22 33 13 14 14 26 27 28 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 2 -9 -2 0 6 5 4 -6 3 10 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 38 39 34 8 327 293 291 289 318 322 333 351 338 337 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.9 26.5 25.5 25.3 24.9 24.7 23.8 23.3 22.8 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 112 109 112 122 118 110 108 105 103 94 92 93 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 33 31 30 32 33 41 43 37 35 36 33 37 40 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 26 24 22 18 15 14 17 16 13 10 7 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -32 -26 -41 -45 -63 -108 -95 -32 -12 -26 -57 -76 -79 -80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -63 -73 -91 -60 -49 -33 -1 -11 -24 -57 -51 -110 -119 -127 -104 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -2 0 0 -2 2 11 16 16 6 7 2 4 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1809 1778 1750 1710 1671 1523 1391 1381 1500 1739 1921 1764 1719 1466 1042 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 34.5 34.2 34.3 34.3 35.2 36.7 38.3 38.9 38.7 38.0 38.0 38.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.4 40.4 41.1 41.8 43.1 42.9 40.6 38.0 34.7 31.5 29.7 29.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 9 11 12 13 10 5 7 15 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -23. -21. -25. -31. -36. -41. -43. -48. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 5. 8. 11. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -19. -20. -22. -25. -29. -31. -34. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.7 38.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -67.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/16/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 39 36 33 31 28 24 26 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 38 35 33 30 26 28 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 35 33 30 26 28 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 30 27 23 25 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT