* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152023 09/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 49 60 72 79 86 90 89 87 83 79 81 81 94 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 49 60 72 79 86 90 89 87 83 79 81 81 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 40 49 59 69 77 85 87 79 71 69 68 68 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 2 4 4 6 7 8 9 11 14 16 13 18 33 62 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 1 1 0 -2 1 -1 -3 0 5 0 4 17 29 13 SHEAR DIR 102 120 120 78 99 88 55 65 92 181 213 211 198 201 214 222 207 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.4 28.8 29.1 28.1 27.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 24.2 23.3 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 156 157 153 159 149 154 139 135 124 127 128 104 101 83 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 -49.7 -49.5 -48.9 -48.5 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 59 60 64 61 64 62 61 62 53 50 39 32 30 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 18 19 19 21 25 27 30 31 32 33 32 34 37 40 49 850 MB ENV VOR 53 42 35 22 15 26 25 28 14 5 0 7 7 71 152 202 221 200 MB DIV 52 53 42 31 27 55 21 -6 21 44 58 95 29 71 52 26 27 700-850 TADV 5 9 5 5 9 6 2 4 -1 5 0 0 -12 -49 -69 -8 -41 LAND (KM) 1597 1562 1534 1470 1417 1370 1323 1313 1313 1431 1323 1138 1036 875 791 985 1527 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.0 24.4 25.8 27.2 28.5 30.4 32.9 35.2 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.7 47.6 48.5 49.4 50.7 52.4 54.2 56.5 58.2 58.7 57.8 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 14 17 24 33 36 HEAT CONTENT 49 54 56 35 34 44 31 22 37 16 13 5 11 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 16 CX,CY: -4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 377 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 22. 21. 18. 16. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 12. 16. 19. 19. 20. 18. 18. 23. 24. 35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 30. 42. 49. 56. 60. 59. 57. 53. 49. 51. 51. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 45.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 21.0% 12.3% 9.2% 7.3% 12.2% 18.9% 32.3% Logistic: 5.7% 17.6% 11.1% 3.0% 1.0% 6.1% 9.0% 16.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 2.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 2.3% 7.1% Consensus: 3.8% 13.6% 8.5% 4.1% 2.8% 6.5% 10.0% 18.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% 42.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 44 49 60 72 79 86 90 89 87 83 79 81 81 94 18HR AGO 30 29 34 40 45 56 68 75 82 86 85 83 79 75 77 77 90 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 37 48 60 67 74 78 77 75 71 67 69 69 82 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 36 48 55 62 66 65 63 59 55 57 57 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT