* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152023 09/16/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 52 65 76 84 90 92 90 84 81 82 80 72 87 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 52 65 76 84 90 92 90 84 81 82 80 72 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 41 51 64 74 82 87 85 76 70 69 61 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 2 5 6 6 6 2 14 12 18 16 26 46 67 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 5 3 1 -3 1 0 -2 -2 3 1 5 13 29 24 15 SHEAR DIR 124 106 46 41 69 74 47 49 156 228 213 227 201 210 218 217 215 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 27.9 26.8 27.1 27.3 25.1 25.2 20.3 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 156 157 155 155 150 149 147 135 123 127 130 109 111 85 78 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.2 -49.8 -49.7 -49.7 -49.5 -48.8 -48.4 -48.3 -48.0 -46.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 59 61 60 62 64 61 63 57 46 39 35 29 28 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 20 20 21 25 29 31 33 35 35 34 34 39 39 35 46 850 MB ENV VOR 44 36 18 15 18 11 18 3 -10 -18 6 22 61 127 172 50 60 200 MB DIV 61 57 37 31 30 0 6 14 39 35 111 62 69 59 33 23 9 700-850 TADV 10 5 7 7 7 3 0 -2 1 4 0 0 -18 -9 31 -47 -112 LAND (KM) 1570 1544 1494 1454 1424 1386 1347 1358 1422 1450 1230 1079 946 769 814 1081 1505 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.4 22.5 23.3 24.1 25.6 27.0 28.3 29.9 31.8 34.0 36.1 38.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.6 48.4 49.1 49.9 51.4 53.4 55.2 57.1 58.3 58.3 56.8 53.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 14 18 20 23 27 28 HEAT CONTENT 55 52 32 33 46 33 24 27 38 11 3 7 13 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 19. 18. 15. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 19. 19. 23. 23. 16. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 35. 46. 54. 60. 62. 60. 54. 51. 52. 50. 42. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 46.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 22.2% 12.5% 9.4% 7.5% 12.2% 16.5% 32.1% Logistic: 8.9% 26.3% 18.7% 7.9% 3.2% 14.4% 17.9% 24.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 3.0% 4.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.8% 3.3% 3.2% Consensus: 5.1% 17.2% 11.7% 5.9% 3.6% 9.5% 12.6% 19.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% 51.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/16/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 46 52 65 76 84 90 92 90 84 81 82 80 72 87 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 60 71 79 85 87 85 79 76 77 75 67 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 51 62 70 76 78 76 70 67 68 66 58 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 39 50 58 64 66 64 58 55 56 54 46 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT