* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 32 31 29 24 24 22 18 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 32 31 29 24 24 22 18 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 33 32 29 28 27 25 23 21 21 20 19 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 14 17 18 17 21 33 20 9 5 18 19 14 18 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 -7 -3 -1 3 7 4 -5 -4 2 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 16 1 4 341 324 304 330 17 288 330 23 37 105 172 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.9 26.6 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.3 24.3 23.7 23.5 23.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 111 116 121 119 111 112 111 111 106 98 95 94 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 30 30 31 30 33 40 44 37 33 30 26 27 29 29 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 20 18 17 14 12 13 13 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -47 -52 -64 -74 -120 -115 -65 -49 -51 -73 -88 -108 -131 -131 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -106 -70 -55 -52 -40 -4 -5 5 -31 -33 -86 -136 -96 -38 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -2 -1 5 9 23 10 3 -1 4 5 13 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1785 1744 1704 1630 1557 1448 1441 1572 1782 1940 1954 1813 1664 1503 1336 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.5 35.0 36.2 37.5 38.2 37.6 37.3 37.2 37.3 37.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.1 40.9 41.7 42.2 42.8 42.7 40.7 37.7 35.2 33.2 31.7 30.1 28.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 8 11 11 9 7 6 6 7 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. -15. -17. -16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -6. -11. -17. -18. -21. -28. -33. -37. -39. -42. -43. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -16. -16. -18. -22. -22. -23. -23. -26. -23. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.0 40.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -64.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 37 34 32 31 29 24 24 22 18 18 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 31 26 26 24 20 20 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 31 26 26 24 20 20 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 22 22 20 16 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT