* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152023 09/17/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 51 56 67 77 84 88 87 86 84 75 75 83 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 51 56 67 77 84 88 87 86 84 75 75 83 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 60 71 79 85 85 80 74 66 60 54 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 3 5 2 10 5 9 16 22 32 40 58 69 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 3 1 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 1 4 9 20 24 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 145 163 137 124 91 81 89 196 204 213 217 214 217 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.3 28.5 28.9 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.0 24.7 21.2 19.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 153 152 157 144 150 136 132 127 127 108 89 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.6 -48.8 -48.2 -47.9 -47.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 6 4 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 59 61 61 60 63 60 60 58 48 40 34 30 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 21 25 27 30 31 31 33 34 32 35 40 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 17 16 18 17 14 11 -10 -13 -4 29 64 135 210 289 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 46 35 56 34 12 10 8 41 59 63 48 45 42 37 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 9 10 5 3 3 0 3 -2 -4 -19 -52 -17 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1542 1495 1463 1440 1426 1397 1381 1425 1545 1295 1073 892 673 787 1222 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.6 23.6 24.4 25.2 26.5 27.9 29.3 31.3 33.6 36.1 38.6 41.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.4 49.2 49.9 50.6 52.1 54.1 55.8 57.2 57.7 57.0 54.3 49.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 19 24 29 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 31 35 43 32 29 18 40 13 16 7 13 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 18. 20. 15. 18. 24. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 32. 42. 49. 53. 52. 51. 49. 40. 40. 48. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.5 47.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/17/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 20.2% 12.3% 9.3% 7.2% 12.5% 19.9% 34.5% Logistic: 6.2% 21.3% 12.9% 5.4% 2.1% 16.4% 20.9% 26.7% Bayesian: 4.2% 6.4% 6.5% 0.9% 0.2% 3.1% 8.1% 1.2% Consensus: 5.0% 15.9% 10.6% 5.2% 3.2% 10.7% 16.3% 20.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 20.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 30.0% 50.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/17/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 FIFTEEN 09/17/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 45 51 56 67 77 84 88 87 86 84 75 75 83 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 51 62 72 79 83 82 81 79 70 70 78 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 53 63 70 74 73 72 70 61 61 69 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 41 51 58 62 61 60 58 49 49 57 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT