* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARGOT AL142023 09/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 28 27 25 23 23 21 22 19 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 28 27 25 23 23 21 22 19 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 27 26 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 16 19 21 32 15 7 16 25 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -4 -6 -8 2 -2 6 4 -6 -5 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 356 349 341 325 294 317 345 336 306 11 27 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 26.0 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 113 119 122 120 116 111 111 110 110 103 96 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -52.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 29 29 31 36 41 38 34 30 26 29 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 19 17 16 13 12 13 12 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -51 -64 -78 -108 -123 -94 -58 -34 -56 -84 -102 -117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -64 -62 -43 -32 -14 -9 6 10 -32 -59 -124 -85 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 0 1 10 5 24 19 4 4 6 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1748 1676 1604 1530 1457 1363 1455 1678 1823 1975 1907 1769 1651 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.3 34.6 35.2 35.8 37.3 38.3 38.1 37.6 37.1 37.0 37.3 38.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.0 41.8 42.6 42.9 43.3 42.4 39.4 36.2 34.6 32.9 31.1 29.6 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 10 12 10 7 7 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -15. -16. -19. -23. -28. -32. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -14. -13. -16. -16. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.9 41.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142023 MARGOT 09/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -43.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142023 MARGOT 09/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142023 MARGOT 09/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 29 28 27 25 23 23 21 22 19 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 31 30 29 27 25 25 23 24 21 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 27 25 25 23 24 21 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 20 20 18 19 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT