* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/17/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 60 67 74 84 91 96 95 91 83 78 70 69 68 84 83 V (KT) LAND 45 52 60 67 74 84 91 96 95 91 83 78 70 69 68 84 83 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 65 71 84 93 100 99 91 82 73 61 49 42 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 5 6 3 3 6 6 10 11 21 33 44 61 60 52 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 1 0 0 -4 -2 2 4 4 9 11 9 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 144 118 127 119 120 30 82 179 211 205 226 222 228 235 248 229 223 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.8 27.9 27.6 27.2 25.1 22.0 18.5 14.0 13.7 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 155 150 155 150 144 149 136 133 129 111 94 82 73 67 64 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -48.7 -48.1 -47.4 -48.6 -48.7 -46.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 61 61 59 61 63 60 61 54 43 36 32 39 52 50 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 23 24 26 29 31 32 32 31 33 31 30 25 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 15 14 4 7 -1 -17 -26 -4 6 81 196 299 299 219 277 200 MB DIV 46 43 41 34 1 16 20 28 29 99 74 53 86 67 102 73 72 700-850 TADV 4 8 9 5 5 3 -2 3 3 1 -3 -8 -7 116 159 66 2 LAND (KM) 1503 1466 1438 1425 1423 1373 1385 1482 1492 1260 1059 764 811 1229 1188 807 746 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.1 25.9 27.0 28.3 30.1 32.1 34.6 37.1 40.1 43.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.0 49.8 50.5 51.2 53.0 54.7 56.2 56.6 56.0 54.4 50.2 43.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 13 18 26 33 35 27 12 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 44 33 32 25 21 42 14 11 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. 19. 21. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 14. 15. 12. 15. 11. 8. 0. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 15. 11. 5. -0. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 29. 39. 46. 51. 50. 46. 38. 33. 25. 24. 23. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.5 48.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.79 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 39.9% 25.4% 15.8% 10.6% 28.9% 43.4% 58.5% Logistic: 13.4% 29.8% 22.0% 10.0% 3.1% 21.9% 24.3% 21.5% Bayesian: 25.4% 18.0% 27.6% 6.1% 2.3% 12.1% 6.7% 0.5% Consensus: 15.5% 29.2% 25.0% 10.6% 5.3% 21.0% 24.8% 26.8% DTOPS: 9.0% 30.0% 9.0% 8.0% 2.0% 16.0% 55.0% 50.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 9( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 60 67 74 84 91 96 95 91 83 78 70 69 68 84 83 18HR AGO 45 44 52 59 66 76 83 88 87 83 75 70 62 61 60 76 75 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 55 65 72 77 76 72 64 59 51 50 49 65 64 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 42 52 59 64 63 59 51 46 38 37 36 52 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT