* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/17/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 45 55 66 76 79 82 79 71 62 53 48 44 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 45 55 66 76 79 82 79 71 62 53 48 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 29 34 40 45 49 52 51 43 33 24 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 11 12 3 3 5 7 16 19 28 37 39 34 30 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 -1 3 2 -2 -4 -1 11 21 10 2 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 47 39 49 46 58 29 239 239 214 194 203 226 241 235 239 261 268 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.4 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.0 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.1 25.2 24.9 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 151 157 159 155 153 151 144 135 128 129 126 122 113 111 95 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 77 78 76 77 76 75 69 66 63 61 52 45 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 16 18 22 22 22 20 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 11 19 24 23 22 26 28 29 25 30 40 48 46 39 37 1 -24 200 MB DIV 86 96 97 82 74 76 95 145 91 84 136 102 35 23 22 7 0 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -5 -4 -3 0 1 0 2 5 13 17 6 6 6 14 LAND (KM) 1135 1166 1174 1196 1227 1271 1288 1392 1514 1665 1844 2001 2077 2039 1923 1762 1583 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 12.6 13.9 15.1 16.2 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.3 111.1 112.0 113.0 115.2 117.7 120.5 123.4 126.3 128.9 131.0 132.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 15 15 15 13 11 9 3 5 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 18 29 48 16 14 17 7 3 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 20. 29. 37. 41. 44. 46. 47. 47. 46. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 10. 14. 16. 21. 20. 18. 14. 9. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 35. 46. 56. 59. 62. 59. 51. 42. 33. 28. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 109.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/17/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 29.9% 10.3% 6.5% 1.6% 23.7% 49.4% 39.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 3.4% 6.0% 0.9% Consensus: 1.0% 11.6% 4.0% 2.3% 0.6% 9.0% 18.4% 13.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/17/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##