* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 82 89 101 103 104 94 85 72 67 62 63 77 81 74 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 82 89 101 103 104 94 85 72 67 62 63 77 81 74 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 68 75 82 93 99 99 93 84 74 62 51 45 45 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 2 3 8 4 6 7 16 23 42 62 61 53 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 0 -4 -2 1 5 2 8 7 0 1 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 120 128 179 93 51 71 148 221 227 211 229 241 252 253 236 225 219 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.6 27.9 28.4 27.8 27.3 27.0 24.9 20.7 17.8 14.8 13.7 12.9 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 153 145 135 143 135 130 128 110 88 79 73 68 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -49.6 -49.8 -49.2 -48.7 -48.6 -48.9 -48.5 -46.9 -46.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 58 58 60 57 58 58 49 40 35 50 56 58 66 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 28 27 32 31 34 32 33 31 34 31 29 36 37 32 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 6 1 -2 -12 -34 -51 -31 6 55 144 225 276 264 271 271 200 MB DIV 67 40 13 27 29 0 25 37 97 57 72 92 137 103 93 64 35 700-850 TADV 7 5 3 -1 0 0 1 4 -5 -6 -8 33 160 123 132 13 0 LAND (KM) 1518 1499 1490 1486 1493 1528 1626 1439 1202 921 816 1073 1537 1068 757 598 697 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.1 27.8 29.2 31.0 33.2 35.8 38.5 41.3 44.7 48.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.2 49.9 50.7 51.4 52.2 53.6 55.0 55.0 53.9 51.0 46.1 39.3 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 12 16 20 27 32 30 23 14 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 34 30 21 13 18 11 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 23. 27. 30. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 3. 8. 8. 12. 10. 10. 8. 11. 6. 1. 10. 11. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 17. 24. 23. 16. 8. -0. -8. -15. -17. -17. -17. -19. -17. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 27. 34. 46. 48. 49. 39. 30. 17. 12. 7. 8. 22. 26. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.7 49.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.87 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.45 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.99 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 50.4% 36.8% 26.6% 25.3% 45.7% 47.3% 33.1% Logistic: 22.4% 47.7% 41.8% 26.8% 11.4% 28.5% 24.0% 6.9% Bayesian: 18.8% 33.2% 24.9% 8.4% 3.8% 15.4% 7.1% 0.0% Consensus: 19.3% 43.7% 34.5% 20.6% 13.5% 29.9% 26.1% 13.3% DTOPS: 11.0% 73.0% 32.0% 14.0% 5.0% 90.0% 66.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/17/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 11( 15) 23( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 7( 7) 7( 14) 1( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 71 82 89 101 103 104 94 85 72 67 62 63 77 81 74 18HR AGO 55 54 62 73 80 92 94 95 85 76 63 58 53 54 68 72 65 12HR AGO 55 52 51 62 69 81 83 84 74 65 52 47 42 43 57 61 54 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 52 64 66 67 57 48 35 30 25 26 40 44 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT