* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/17/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 31 42 53 63 71 75 75 71 67 61 50 39 27 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 31 42 53 63 71 75 75 71 67 61 50 39 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 41 49 56 60 57 48 38 28 20 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 13 12 12 9 1 6 5 5 17 21 29 31 44 46 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -5 -2 5 8 7 1 6 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 72 69 55 48 55 66 345 317 317 218 234 251 244 224 220 224 224 SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.5 26.4 25.0 23.7 22.0 21.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 159 157 153 150 154 151 148 143 138 128 114 102 84 79 70 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -53.4 -54.4 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 80 78 80 77 79 75 73 65 61 57 48 42 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 13 13 14 16 17 19 19 19 17 13 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 42 41 44 48 48 38 26 25 20 4 -4 -12 -22 -14 -39 200 MB DIV 90 84 68 63 65 86 80 120 94 116 112 54 24 41 12 0 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -6 -8 -8 -5 1 -2 0 0 9 10 24 21 6 -4 -23 LAND (KM) 1141 1190 1242 1314 1330 1387 1471 1572 1646 1702 1720 1673 1525 1248 952 612 300 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.9 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.4 113.4 114.5 115.6 117.7 119.6 121.5 123.4 125.0 126.4 127.3 127.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 11 14 16 17 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 37 51 27 14 13 17 14 11 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 9. 18. 28. 35. 40. 43. 45. 47. 46. 44. 42. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 15. 13. 11. 6. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 22. 33. 43. 51. 55. 55. 51. 47. 41. 30. 19. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 111.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/17/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 3.9% 21.8% 20.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 7.3% 6.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/17/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##