* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 75 83 90 95 98 96 89 81 71 69 72 73 80 80 72 V (KT) LAND 60 67 75 83 90 95 98 96 89 81 71 69 72 73 80 80 72 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 73 79 84 92 97 95 89 80 69 61 53 47 44 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 4 3 3 8 14 18 25 28 45 72 62 33 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 0 -1 -2 2 0 2 0 9 14 0 0 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 136 170 203 166 72 77 186 220 224 227 237 244 253 244 229 217 205 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.7 25.5 23.9 20.1 17.1 14.9 13.1 13.0 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 145 138 143 136 134 136 114 103 86 78 72 68 62 64 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.6 -49.2 -49.0 -47.8 -47.7 -47.6 -47.2 -47.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 59 59 57 57 57 53 47 44 42 47 52 61 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 30 32 31 33 35 34 34 34 36 38 36 38 36 31 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 7 4 1 -19 -31 -38 -12 43 96 191 269 282 269 280 275 200 MB DIV 48 21 19 14 0 23 48 66 83 71 105 151 135 79 74 59 34 700-850 TADV 5 4 1 0 0 -2 2 -1 -5 -9 7 70 129 132 50 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 1497 1491 1494 1491 1498 1556 1552 1335 1047 812 946 1322 1286 908 619 460 580 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 26.2 27.0 27.7 28.4 29.9 32.0 34.2 37.2 40.0 42.5 45.8 49.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.9 50.6 51.3 52.1 52.9 54.3 55.4 55.0 53.0 48.9 42.6 35.5 28.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 14 19 24 29 31 28 22 14 1 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 31 22 16 19 11 11 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 23. 29. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 8. 7. 6. 9. 11. 6. 9. 5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 16. 12. 6. -0. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 36. 29. 21. 11. 9. 12. 13. 20. 20. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.4 49.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.88 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 51.4% 39.4% 33.3% 28.1% 45.6% 41.4% 26.6% Logistic: 29.2% 50.5% 47.6% 31.0% 14.0% 30.9% 21.8% 3.1% Bayesian: 25.0% 28.9% 29.0% 12.2% 4.7% 11.1% 3.6% 0.0% Consensus: 24.9% 43.6% 38.7% 25.5% 15.6% 29.2% 22.3% 9.9% DTOPS: 31.0% 74.0% 37.0% 15.0% 9.0% 76.0% 63.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 5( 5) 12( 16) 17( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 67 75 83 90 95 98 96 89 81 71 69 72 73 80 80 72 18HR AGO 60 59 67 75 82 87 90 88 81 73 63 61 64 65 72 72 64 12HR AGO 60 57 56 64 71 76 79 77 70 62 52 50 53 54 61 61 53 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 57 62 65 63 56 48 38 36 39 40 47 47 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT