* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122023 09/18/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 23 21 22 23 25 32 34 46 52 60 58 50 49 62 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 3 4 2 2 3 3 1 0 -2 2 11 13 0 5 SHEAR DIR 209 219 229 235 232 240 263 274 251 239 234 239 259 273 277 304 313 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 143 145 147 145 144 142 141 140 144 148 153 154 156 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 44 45 44 44 44 47 43 47 46 47 47 53 54 58 61 67 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 22 20 16 10 1 -17 -15 -15 0 -10 -8 -16 -16 -18 -11 -6 200 MB DIV -4 -7 -7 -16 -19 -23 0 18 26 26 27 24 9 -8 -25 -1 36 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 0 1 2 1 -2 4 3 3 -2 -3 -8 0 1 14 LAND (KM) 1257 1179 1116 1054 996 881 803 831 939 1032 1125 1302 1523 1769 1998 2213 2381 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.0 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.3 146.4 147.5 148.6 149.8 152.5 155.5 158.6 161.7 164.6 167.5 170.3 173.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 14 15 16 15 15 14 14 14 13 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 10 22 30 11 8 9 10 24 12 13 18 35 40 29 31 30 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 20. 29. 36. 41. 45. 48. 49. 51. 51. 53. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -18. -27. -36. -45. -54. -61. -61. -57. -57. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -27. -33. -36. -32. -24. -21. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 145.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122023 TWELVE 09/18/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122023 TWELVE 09/18/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##