* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 84 91 98 103 102 99 91 79 71 62 64 71 76 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 78 84 91 98 103 102 99 91 79 71 62 64 71 76 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 77 85 91 95 101 97 91 85 74 62 51 46 45 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 6 6 4 9 8 21 27 44 74 63 60 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 -2 -3 -1 2 2 2 7 11 -4 0 -1 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 140 73 60 81 106 208 221 221 230 251 253 252 246 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.9 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.5 25.4 21.0 18.1 14.8 15.0 13.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 145 138 136 140 135 130 123 114 89 80 73 70 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -49.2 -49.6 -49.0 -48.3 -48.7 -49.4 -48.5 -47.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 59 59 56 58 56 47 43 40 48 49 53 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 28 31 34 34 34 35 34 33 34 29 29 32 34 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 -1 -5 -11 -35 -45 -31 7 63 135 246 234 208 230 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 28 16 8 2 27 22 81 74 88 97 99 76 62 52 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 5 0 3 4 -4 5 1 73 128 80 65 32 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1500 1501 1513 1522 1539 1656 1446 1202 875 829 1155 1545 982 737 644 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.0 27.8 28.5 29.2 31.1 33.1 35.8 39.0 41.7 44.5 48.3 53.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.1 51.9 52.6 53.4 54.6 55.1 53.7 50.5 45.3 38.3 31.2 24.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 12 17 22 26 30 31 25 14 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 33 22 15 12 13 11 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 23. 30. 35. 38. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 5. 3. 3. -4. -5. -2. -0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 16. 11. 5. -0. -6. -10. -11. -11. -12. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 21. 28. 33. 32. 29. 21. 9. 1. -8. -6. 1. 6. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 26.1 50.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 12.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.88 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.26 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.5% 43.9% 33.4% 25.5% 23.3% 32.0% 27.8% 0.0% Logistic: 29.3% 46.5% 42.4% 23.6% 10.2% 24.0% 14.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 40.8% 36.1% 31.1% 12.1% 4.8% 9.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 30.9% 42.2% 35.6% 20.4% 12.8% 21.9% 14.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 37.0% 54.0% 26.0% 18.0% 5.0% 20.0% 14.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 9( 13) 21( 31) 25( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 78 84 91 98 103 102 99 91 79 71 62 64 71 76 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 75 82 89 94 93 90 82 70 62 53 55 62 67 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 73 80 85 84 81 73 61 53 44 46 53 58 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 67 72 71 68 60 48 40 31 33 40 45 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 78 84 75 69 65 64 61 53 41 33 24 26 33 38 DIS DIS