* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122023 09/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 22 20 22 23 29 30 35 43 49 52 48 46 50 53 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 6 3 1 3 2 2 1 -1 0 6 10 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 215 228 242 239 227 249 273 272 242 237 234 243 260 284 294 308 313 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 146 147 147 146 144 141 142 142 143 149 154 156 156 158 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 45 45 47 47 50 50 50 52 55 60 61 64 69 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 21 18 16 11 -8 -12 -16 -7 -1 -8 -8 -7 -10 3 16 28 200 MB DIV -19 -11 -18 -1 -31 -4 17 20 17 25 36 25 -11 -12 -24 2 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 1 1 3 -2 2 3 0 2 0 -4 -2 -5 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1209 1147 1096 1040 984 870 835 901 1045 1112 1261 1504 1768 2035 2273 2530 2752 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.8 13.5 14.2 14.6 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.3 147.4 148.5 149.7 151.0 153.8 156.9 160.1 163.2 166.1 169.1 172.3 175.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 13 11 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 28 12 9 9 9 16 21 11 21 24 47 36 41 38 41 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 20. 29. 36. 40. 43. 46. 47. 49. 49. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -13. -22. -30. -39. -47. -55. -59. -59. -55. -54. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -14. -17. -21. -26. -32. -37. -38. -34. -27. -22. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 146.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122023 TWELVE 09/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122023 TWELVE 09/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##