* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/18/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 39 43 44 43 44 46 47 46 45 42 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 35 39 43 44 43 44 46 47 46 45 42 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 34 34 33 32 31 29 29 29 29 27 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 8 7 15 15 18 21 16 8 7 14 22 32 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 -1 1 6 10 5 6 0 -1 -6 -9 SHEAR DIR 69 81 55 89 178 226 208 191 188 193 198 237 226 241 261 261 248 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.1 22.4 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 153 153 154 145 146 144 143 139 138 136 124 116 104 87 80 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 73 73 73 73 71 71 66 65 61 57 48 44 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 38 39 48 55 59 58 59 48 41 27 22 -4 -25 -53 -75 200 MB DIV 32 17 18 20 46 102 129 106 111 110 88 49 54 24 5 6 -11 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 1 5 8 4 1 0 -2 0 7 13 15 23 17 6 LAND (KM) 1052 1070 1089 1154 1228 1413 1590 1775 1921 2012 2020 1935 1775 1587 1401 1246 1040 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.3 15.1 15.0 15.3 16.3 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.7 114.1 115.5 117.0 118.4 121.2 123.7 125.9 127.7 128.8 129.2 129.1 128.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 7 3 4 7 9 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 31 13 14 19 11 10 11 8 7 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. 40. 38. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 18. 19. 18. 19. 21. 22. 21. 20. 17. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 112.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.1% 5.6% 0.3% 0.1% 6.4% 5.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##