* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 79 84 87 89 89 87 85 79 71 67 70 73 76 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 75 79 84 87 89 89 87 85 79 71 67 70 73 76 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 75 80 84 86 89 89 85 79 68 55 47 43 42 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 7 2 7 13 15 22 36 62 79 64 55 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 -3 -2 2 0 1 6 12 5 -5 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 117 66 61 79 101 200 209 227 229 248 252 252 255 241 222 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.8 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.8 25.4 24.3 19.0 16.5 15.5 13.9 12.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 135 134 141 137 133 137 114 107 83 77 73 69 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 -49.0 -48.8 -49.9 -50.4 -49.4 -47.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.2 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 58 56 57 57 49 43 40 45 45 48 56 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 33 32 32 32 32 34 34 31 28 28 29 29 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 -3 -13 -29 -41 -37 -24 38 90 137 135 131 173 218 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 26 3 5 13 42 68 84 89 113 78 102 60 64 60 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 5 0 0 6 5 5 0 52 150 48 41 29 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1501 1512 1531 1552 1580 1567 1315 1060 820 987 1516 1057 581 506 446 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.0 32.0 34.5 37.1 40.1 43.0 46.2 49.7 53.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.1 51.8 52.5 53.3 54.0 54.9 54.7 52.6 48.4 41.6 32.8 24.9 18.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 19 26 32 34 29 22 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 20 13 11 16 11 10 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -14. -20. -26. -29. -32. -34. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 18. 23. 31. 37. 39. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. -1. -6. -8. -7. -7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 17. 15. 9. 1. -3. -0. 3. 6. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 26.9 51.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.88 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 30.1% 20.4% 16.9% 12.1% 19.2% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 22.9% 16.9% 5.2% 2.0% 7.6% 7.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 25.3% 15.6% 11.6% 2.7% 0.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 22.9% 16.3% 8.3% 4.9% 10.1% 9.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 7( 11) 10( 20) 11( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 75 79 84 87 89 89 87 85 79 71 67 70 73 76 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 73 78 81 83 83 81 79 73 65 61 64 67 70 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 71 74 76 76 74 72 66 58 54 57 60 63 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 65 65 63 61 55 47 43 46 49 52 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT