* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122023 09/18/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 20 22 23 26 31 31 39 42 53 54 56 55 62 61 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 3 2 1 2 0 2 5 0 0 7 7 5 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 228 239 233 227 234 265 278 256 240 231 231 248 264 284 301 306 315 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 147 148 147 145 143 143 141 141 145 155 155 156 159 158 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 45 47 46 50 49 50 49 51 54 63 62 71 75 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 13 11 5 -9 -7 -12 0 -4 -12 -14 -8 -16 -1 -9 -3 200 MB DIV -2 -18 -9 -30 -21 1 16 31 13 27 9 19 0 -21 0 17 74 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 1 -2 3 1 2 4 2 -3 -3 -2 10 10 LAND (KM) 1127 1073 1030 977 929 869 913 1025 1116 1210 1403 1645 1938 2201 2457 2671 2810 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.8 149.0 150.2 151.5 152.9 155.9 159.1 162.2 165.1 168.0 171.0 174.1 177.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 15 16 15 14 12 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 10 9 8 9 12 29 13 20 35 48 47 43 32 28 71 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 21. 30. 36. 40. 44. 46. 48. 49. 50. 51. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -24. -33. -41. -50. -57. -63. -64. -61. -60. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -9. -6. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -14. -18. -23. -28. -34. -40. -41. -38. -33. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 147.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122023 TWELVE 09/18/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 49.8 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122023 TWELVE 09/18/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##