* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 76 79 82 86 83 79 76 71 67 66 71 79 77 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 72 76 79 82 86 83 79 76 71 67 66 71 79 77 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 76 78 82 81 77 71 61 50 45 45 46 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 7 4 6 8 12 16 27 49 73 65 55 44 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 2 2 2 8 10 -3 2 4 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 84 89 144 176 206 223 232 238 252 257 259 251 232 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.9 25.7 21.4 18.0 16.4 14.5 13.6 13.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 135 134 140 141 139 131 127 117 91 80 75 71 67 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -49.4 -48.8 -49.8 -51.0 -50.8 -49.2 -46.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.5 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 54 55 57 54 47 40 43 50 51 51 63 74 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 30 31 33 32 31 32 31 28 25 26 30 29 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -19 -35 -42 -55 -35 4 56 105 158 158 161 228 252 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 3 2 14 24 36 81 83 103 101 69 84 69 80 87 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 -2 -2 1 2 -2 3 32 157 145 88 70 24 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1504 1523 1550 1593 1643 1445 1179 899 870 1229 1400 839 535 534 508 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.4 29.2 30.1 30.9 33.2 36.0 38.8 41.8 44.9 48.2 51.6 55.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.8 52.5 53.2 53.8 54.5 54.8 53.7 50.4 44.5 37.1 29.0 22.5 18.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 13 17 23 29 32 29 24 18 11 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 14 11 15 15 13 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -23. -28. -32. -34. -35. -34. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. 26. 34. 39. 40. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 2. -0. -7. -11. -11. -6. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 13. 9. 6. 1. -3. -4. 1. 9. 7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.6 51.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.85 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 17.6% 12.4% 10.5% 9.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 19.7% 15.4% 8.0% 4.5% 6.8% 3.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 4.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 13.8% 10.2% 6.4% 4.6% 6.5% 1.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 32.0% 17.0% 10.0% 4.0% 18.0% 7.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/18/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 8( 16) 10( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 76 79 82 86 83 79 76 71 67 66 71 79 77 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 73 76 79 83 80 76 73 68 64 63 68 76 74 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 69 72 76 73 69 66 61 57 56 61 69 67 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 67 64 60 57 52 48 47 52 60 58 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT