* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/18/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 33 32 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 33 32 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 2 4 9 12 15 21 29 36 48 48 50 43 37 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 1 4 0 0 5 9 11 0 1 -2 1 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 55 69 56 271 265 246 213 201 215 224 234 229 229 230 239 232 232 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 27.8 26.6 26.0 25.5 24.9 23.8 22.6 22.8 21.5 21.3 20.2 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 151 153 153 142 130 123 118 112 101 88 90 77 75 63 69 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.6 -54.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 76 74 73 71 66 59 55 46 35 32 27 22 20 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 35 41 42 39 39 39 45 41 22 11 -2 -2 -14 -36 -55 -42 200 MB DIV 33 49 55 59 78 112 78 78 71 37 27 26 -1 -12 -25 1 -11 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 3 5 6 5 7 11 12 18 27 12 2 -10 -12 -8 LAND (KM) 1146 1182 1222 1275 1344 1428 1524 1580 1559 1450 1304 1125 940 721 498 242 51 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.6 18.9 20.7 22.9 25.1 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.3 117.5 118.7 119.9 122.2 124.1 125.8 126.8 127.0 126.8 125.9 124.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 9 12 11 10 10 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 13 18 20 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26. 23. 20. 17. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 7. 3. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -30. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 115.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.8% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 4.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.7% 4.9% 0.2% 0.0% 5.5% 4.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/18/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##