* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 80 81 82 81 78 74 66 58 62 65 75 75 65 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 80 81 82 81 78 74 66 58 62 65 75 75 65 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 80 82 82 81 77 69 57 45 41 43 47 47 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 8 8 10 12 17 29 46 68 60 43 32 19 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 4 2 3 5 10 12 0 1 6 -1 -5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 91 123 174 198 197 217 220 235 250 251 259 251 224 225 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.5 26.4 25.1 20.8 18.2 16.0 14.5 13.6 12.6 12.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 140 140 139 139 133 122 112 88 80 74 71 68 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -49.9 -49.3 -49.1 -49.9 -51.4 -51.4 -50.2 -48.1 -47.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.3 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 53 55 51 44 39 42 53 50 53 69 79 76 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 32 32 31 32 32 33 30 24 23 23 28 28 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -32 -42 -47 -56 -36 8 50 67 91 111 121 174 249 263 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 16 26 23 16 94 83 100 92 61 109 82 100 102 63 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 4 2 -4 3 29 141 177 150 121 67 5 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1536 1598 1667 1549 1421 1146 877 919 1335 1341 793 553 540 352 294 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.1 31.1 32.3 33.5 36.3 39.2 42.1 45.1 48.3 52.0 55.4 58.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.3 53.8 54.4 54.5 54.6 53.3 49.5 43.4 35.6 28.2 21.9 18.2 17.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 18 24 29 31 29 23 18 13 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 15 12 10 14 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -16. -23. -31. -37. -41. -44. -43. -42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 23. 30. 38. 41. 41. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -13. -16. -17. -10. -11. -19. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -9. -17. -13. -10. -0. -0. -10. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.1 53.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 556.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.2% 10.9% 9.4% 7.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 6.3% 4.4% 3.4% 2.6% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 18.0% 36.0% 26.0% 23.0% 8.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 80 81 82 81 78 74 66 58 62 65 75 75 65 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 77 78 79 78 75 71 63 55 59 62 72 72 62 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 72 69 65 57 49 53 56 66 66 56 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 65 62 58 50 42 46 49 59 59 49 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT