* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952023 09/19/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 35 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 35 32 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 3 3 2 12 20 33 41 55 61 56 55 47 42 37 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 6 2 0 4 2 2 -2 -2 -6 -7 -6 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 59 54 84 122 153 206 196 215 224 227 220 221 228 240 250 264 274 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.7 27.8 27.7 26.3 25.8 24.9 23.6 22.5 21.6 20.8 20.8 30.0 30.5 30.4 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 143 141 127 121 113 100 89 80 72 72 166 171 170 170 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.2 -54.0 -54.3 -55.0 -55.3 -56.3 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 74 73 73 71 68 63 57 49 44 37 33 27 23 19 18 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 12 13 15 14 14 13 12 11 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 36 35 33 32 41 30 17 -8 -8 -30 -39 -37 29 17 50 200 MB DIV 29 43 55 64 60 44 41 42 80 34 20 13 -4 -17 -19 5 -8 700-850 TADV 2 2 4 4 4 7 7 8 17 9 6 -15 -14 -4 -2 6 33 LAND (KM) 1231 1283 1329 1356 1389 1459 1474 1431 1280 1084 742 428 36 -160 -355 -572 -884 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.4 18.8 20.6 23.2 25.9 28.4 30.3 31.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.7 119.8 121.0 122.0 123.9 125.6 126.7 126.7 125.9 123.8 120.9 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 11 10 12 13 15 16 17 17 14 11 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 18 19 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 19. 19. 18. 16. 11. 11. 15. 20. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -6. -8. -12. -17. -26. -39. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -4. -8. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 7. 0. -6. -15. -26. -34. -38. -44. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 117.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952023 INVEST 09/19/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.77 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.1% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 4.7% 3.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952023 INVEST 09/19/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##