* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIGEL AL152023 09/19/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 80 81 82 81 78 73 61 57 62 69 75 70 66 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 80 81 82 81 78 73 61 57 62 69 75 70 66 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 79 79 78 73 63 49 41 40 44 47 45 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 8 11 14 24 37 51 67 54 33 21 13 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 3 1 2 6 14 9 -2 1 3 -5 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 177 204 209 206 224 234 249 257 258 254 236 228 220 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.3 24.9 23.4 19.3 17.2 15.3 13.6 12.5 12.6 12.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 136 138 135 132 110 101 83 77 72 68 64 66 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.4 -49.8 -51.2 -51.3 -50.4 -48.4 -47.4 -46.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.6 1.2 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 54 53 46 41 36 44 51 56 69 84 78 69 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 31 32 30 31 31 32 32 26 22 21 25 27 24 22 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -41 -43 -60 -55 -24 39 38 40 64 135 209 262 277 220 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 33 29 26 59 83 84 97 80 70 74 91 81 52 54 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 6 3 0 3 17 88 147 184 131 99 76 -5 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1576 1659 1543 1411 1284 979 844 1152 1633 1011 676 701 493 392 487 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 31.1 32.2 33.6 35.0 37.9 40.9 43.6 46.0 49.5 53.7 57.1 59.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.9 54.5 55.0 54.6 54.2 51.6 46.2 38.9 30.7 24.1 20.3 19.8 22.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 14 16 21 28 31 30 25 20 14 7 10 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 10 13 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -17. -25. -33. -39. -43. -45. -44. -42. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 24. 32. 38. 40. 40. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -8. -15. -17. -13. -10. -15. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. 10. 7. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -14. -18. -13. -6. 0. -5. -9. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.9 53.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.78 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 573.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 14.9% 10.5% 9.0% 7.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 5.8% 4.1% 3.2% 2.4% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 13.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152023 NIGEL 09/19/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 8( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 80 81 82 81 78 73 61 57 62 69 75 70 66 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 77 78 79 78 75 70 58 54 59 66 72 67 63 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 72 69 64 52 48 53 60 66 61 57 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 65 62 57 45 41 46 53 59 54 50 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT